Public monitoring

The system audits itself in the open

Mean coverage

89%

target 90% · adaptive bands, recent window

Calibration, coverage, and drift are recomputed on every build from real one-step forecasts against what the feeds then reported, and shown publicly — not as a footnote, but as a feature. A model that hides its own performance is asking for blind trust. TerraGuard asks for the opposite.

Data last updated

2026-10-02 19:05 KST

2026-10-02 10:05 UTC

Next refresh due in

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every 60 min · models retrained nightly

Data sources

8/8 answered

all publicly available · see registry →

Sun

Coverage (adaptive)

88%

static 80% · α 0.06

MAE

4.809

sfu

Drift (PSI)

0.08

stable

Held-out skill

+4.4%

vs persistence, test window

Held-out coverage

79%

static 90% band, test window

Rolling coveragewindowed

Rolling backtest · 90 one-step forecasts

26-07-23, , 90% target26-10-01

Atmosphere

Coverage (adaptive)

92%

static 96% · α 0.14

MAE

4.6

µg/m³

Drift (PSI)

0.24

moderate

Held-out skill

+12.0%

vs persistence, test window

Held-out coverage

93%

static 90% band, test window

Rolling coveragewindowed

Rolling backtest · 90 one-step forecasts

26-07-24, , 90% target26-10-02

Hydrosphere

Coverage (adaptive)

90%

static 84% · α 0.10

MAE

70.094

m³/s

Drift (PSI)

0.36

elevated

Held-out skill

+19.7%

vs persistence, test window

Held-out coverage

89%

static 90% band, test window

Rolling coveragewindowed

Rolling backtest · 90 one-step forecasts

26-07-24, , 90% target26-10-02

Biosphere

Coverage (adaptive)

90%

static 93% · α 0.10

MAE

0.022

NDVI

Drift (PSI)

0.86

elevated

Held-out skill

+50.4%

vs persistence, test window

Held-out coverage

96%

static 90% band, test window

Rolling coveragewindowed

Rolling backtest · 90 one-step forecasts

23-06-26, , 90% target26-08-13

Geosphere

Coverage (adaptive)

86%

static 78% · α 0.03

MAE

0.872

gC·m⁻²·d⁻¹

Drift (PSI)

0.40

elevated

Held-out skill

+3.1%

vs persistence, test window

Held-out coverage

86%

static 90% band, test window

Rolling coveragewindowed

Rolling backtest · 90 one-step forecasts

26-07-24, , 90% target26-10-02

Reading these charts

Calibration diagram

Nominal coverage vs. what actually happened on held-out data. Points on the diagonal mean the intervals are honest, neither over- nor under-confident.

Coverage

The share of held-out values that fell inside the 90% interval. A coverage far below 90% is the model over-promising; the Trust Core widens or abstains when it sees this.

Drift (PSI)

Population stability of the day-to-day change distribution vs. training. Below 0.1 is stable; rising drift is an early warning that a model may need recalibration.